TrueMeds - Transforming Pharmaceutical Supply Chain with AI-Powered Demand Forecasting
TrueMeds partnered with Wohlig Transformations to implement an advanced AI-powered demand forecasting system that revolutionized inventory management across 22,000+ pharmaceutical SKUs, delivering unprecedented accuracy and operational efficiency.
Project Overview
The project delivered a comprehensive AI-powered demand forecasting solution leveraging a multi-model ensemble approach to predict pharmaceutical demand with high accuracy. By implementing this intelligent forecasting system, TrueMeds aimed to eliminate stockouts, reduce medicine expiration wastage, and optimize working capital tied up in inventory while maintaining service excellence for cost-conscious healthcare consumers.
The Challenge
TrueMeds, India’s leading pharmaceutical e-commerce platform specializing in affordable generic medicines, faced several critical operational challenges:
Inventory Management Complexity: Managing stockouts and overstocking across a vast catalog of 22,000+ pharmaceutical SKUs across multiple categories including generic medicines, prescription drugs, OTC products, and healthcare essentials.
Demand Volatility: Unpredictable pharmaceutical demand patterns made accurate forecasting extremely difficult, leading to either excess inventory or missed sales opportunities.
Expiration Risk: High wastage due to expired medicines resulting from poor demand forecasting, directly impacting profitability and sustainability.
Manual Processes: Time-consuming manual demand planning and procurement processes that couldn’t scale with business growth.
Forecasting Accuracy: Low prediction accuracy leading to significant revenue loss, customer dissatisfaction, and inefficient capital allocation.
Key Objectives
The solution was designed to meet several core objectives for a robust, production-ready forecasting system:
Improve Forecasting Accuracy Across All SKUs: Achieve industry-leading prediction accuracy for diverse pharmaceutical products.
Reduce Stockouts and Overstocking: Optimize inventory levels to maintain product availability while minimizing excess stock.
Minimize Medicine Expiration and Wastage: Implement predictive expiration management to reduce write-offs significantly.
Automate Demand Planning Processes: Eliminate manual effort and enable the team to focus on strategic decisions.
Optimize Inventory Costs and Working Capital: Reduce capital tied up in inventory while improving cash flow.
The Solution: Advanced AI & Cloud Infrastructure
Wohlig engineered a sophisticated demand forecasting platform built on Google Cloud Platform (GCP) with cutting-edge machine learning capabilities:
Multi-Model Ensemble Architecture:
Implemented a hybrid approach combining Prophet for time-series forecasting, LightGBM for gradient boosting, and XGBoost for enhanced prediction accuracy
Each model contributes its strengths, with the ensemble methodology delivering superior results compared to single-model approaches
Automated Bias Optimization:
Developed intelligent bias correction strategies that continuously learn from prediction errors
Dynamic adjustment mechanisms ensure sustained accuracy across different product categories and seasonal patterns
Cloud Infrastructure:
Vertex AI for model training, deployment, and orchestration
BigQuery for data warehousing and real-time analytics
FAISS Vector Storage for efficient historical pattern matching and similarity search
Python ML Stack (scikit-learn, pandas) for data processing and feature engineering
Real-Time Integration:
Seamless inventory system integration for up-to-the-minute stock visibility
Automated procurement recommendations based on forecasted demand and current inventory levels
Continuous monitoring and model retraining to adapt to changing market conditions
Key Benefits & Results
The implementation of this AI-powered forecasting system delivered transformative results across all key metrics:
Forecasting Accuracy
Previous: Manual forecasting with inconsistent accuracy and high error rates
Solution: Ensemble ML models with automated bias optimization
Result: 85%+ prediction accuracy across 22,000+ SKUs
Impact: Significantly reduced forecast errors, improved demand planning, and enhanced decision-making confidence
Inventory Optimization
Previous: Frequent stockouts and excess inventory issues
Current: Optimized stock levels with intelligent automated reordering
Result: 40% reduction in stockouts and 35% reduction in excess inventory
Impact: Improved service levels, reduced carrying costs, and better working capital utilization
Wastage Reduction
Previous: High expiration rates due to overstocking and poor demand visibility
Current: Predictive expiration management system with proactive alerts
Result: 60% reduction in expired medicine wastage
Measurement: Significant cost savings from reduced write-offs and improved sustainability
Process Automation
Previous: Manual demand planning requiring significant time and resources
Current: Fully automated forecasting and procurement recommendations
Result: 90% reduction in manual planning effort
Impact: Team can focus on strategic decisions, exception handling, and business growth rather than data crunching
Cost Optimization
Infrastructure: 45% reduction in operational costs compared to previous manual processes
Annual Impact: Projected savings of ₹80L+ from reduced wastage and optimized inventory
Efficiency Gains:
Reduced working capital tied up in inventory
Lower storage and handling costs
Decreased expired product write-offs
Improved cash flow through optimized procurement
Technical Innovation
The project introduced several innovative technical capabilities:
Multi-Model Ensemble Approach: Combined strengths of Prophet (seasonality detection), LightGBM (fast training), and XGBoost (high accuracy) to create a robust forecasting engine superior to any single model.
Automated Bias Optimization: Intelligent algorithms that continuously analyze prediction errors and automatically adjust model parameters to minimize systematic biases across different product categories.
Real-Time Inventory Integration: Seamless connection with BigQuery for instantaneous visibility into stock levels, sales velocity, and inventory positions.
FAISS-Powered Pattern Matching: Vector storage technology enables rapid identification of historical demand patterns similar to current conditions, improving forecast accuracy for new or low-volume products.
Comprehensive Procurement System: Automated recommendations that consider forecasted demand, current inventory, lead times, expiration dates, and order economics to optimize purchasing decisions.
Wohlig’s Approach
Wohlig followed a structured implementation methodology to ensure rapid deployment with minimal business disruption:
Discovery & Data Analysis: Comprehensive analysis of historical sales data, inventory patterns, and business requirements across all 22,000+ SKUs.
Model Development & Training: Parallel development of Prophet, LightGBM, and XGBoost models with extensive hyperparameter tuning and validation.
Ensemble Architecture Design: Creation of the multi-model framework with intelligent weighting mechanisms and bias optimization strategies.
Cloud Infrastructure Setup: Google Cloud Platform configuration including Vertex AI, BigQuery, and FAISS vector storage for production-scale operations.
Integration & Testing: Seamless integration with existing inventory systems, comprehensive testing across product categories, and validation of forecasting accuracy.
Deployment & Training: Production deployment with comprehensive documentation, team training, and knowledge transfer for ongoing operations.
About TrueMeds
TrueMeds is a leading pharmaceutical e-commerce platform in India, dedicated to providing affordable generic medicines and healthcare products. With a catalog of over 22,000+ pharmaceutical SKUs spanning generic medicines, prescription drugs, OTC products, and healthcare essentials, TrueMeds serves cost-conscious healthcare consumers across urban and semi-urban markets. The platform is known for delivering significant cost savings on branded medications through high-quality generic alternatives, making healthcare more accessible and affordable for millions of Indians.
About Wohlig Transformations Pvt. Ltd.
Founded in 2015, Wohlig Transformations specializes in GenAI and DevOps services, with a team of over 160 professionals across India and the UK. Their expertise in implementing advanced AI solutions and proficiency in cloud technologies empowers clients to thrive in an increasingly digital landscape. Wohlig’s deep experience in machine learning, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise automation enables organizations to unlock the full potential of their data and operations.
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